Social Networks and Citizen Broadcasting: The More Friends the Better

Event Category: 
Event Date: 
Thu, 02/22/2018 - 12:00pm to 1:00pm
CPS, Room 203

Join us for a presentation by Dr. Mary Stegmaier, assistant professor at the Harry S Truman School of Public Affairs, University of Missouri - Columbia. 

Abstract: Most citizens correctly forecast which party will win a given election, and such forecasts usually have a higher level of accuracy than voter intention polls. How do citizens do it? We argue that social networks are a big part of theanswer: much of what we know as citizens comes from our interactions with others. Previous research has considered only indirect characteristics of social networks when analyzing why citizens are good forecasters. We use a unique German survey and consider direct measures of social networks in order to explore their role in election forecasting. We find that three network characteristics – size, political composition, and frequency of political discussion – are among the most important variables when predicting the accuracy of citizens’ election forecasts.

A light lunch will be served

Please RSVP to Shonda Levine-Ouji at by COB on February 19, 2018

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